Global cooperation to be key part of new space science plan

CHINA

China this month released its first ever medium- to long-term space science plan outlining the country’s space science missions and space research to 2050, in a bid to become a “world space power” during the third phase of the plan from 2036 onwards.

The plan and roadmap, billed as the first of its kind at national level, seeks to achieve “landmark original results with significant international impact” as China aims to become a force in global space science.

It was jointly released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the China National Space Administration (CNSA) and the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) and is coordinated by China’s State Council Information Office – equivalent to the cabinet office.

The initiative aims to “achieve high-quality development in space science, drive breakthroughs in space technology innovation, upgrade space applications, rank among the world’s leading space nations, and establish China as a global leader in space science,” CAS said.

Key goals include implementing national space science missions, strengthening basic research, building a high-level talent pool for space science, and making breakthrough achievements at the global level.

The focus of the second phase 2028-2035 will be on manned missions and establishing a research station on the moon, while “over 30 missions” are in the plan for the third phase 2036-2050.

International collaboration

International collaboration will also play a part in China’s plans for the next 25 years. This builds on extensive cooperation with the European Space Agency over the Einstein Probe and upcoming Solar Wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) mission, due to launch next year.

“In the future, China will actively initiate, propose and participate in international cooperation projects,” said Wang Chi, director of the National Space Science Center under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), speaking at a joint press conference in Beijing on 15 October. “We will continue to strengthen cooperation in various disciplines,” he said.

In what some observers said was a bid by China to put its space programme, which has been run by the military, under greater civilian direction, Yang Xiaoyu, director of the Department of System Engineering at CNSA, and others pointed to the important role of CAS in space research, in particular in setting scientific targets and goals for designing instruments for space probes.

According to CAS, breakthroughs in space science could also drive other “major world class scientific achievements”.

“Our country’s space science research, in general, is still in an initial stage,” Ding Chibiao, a vice-president at CAS, acknowledged at the Beijing press conference. “It’s a weakness that must be addressed on the path of building an aerospace power,” Ding noted.

Space power ambitions

Wang said in a recent paper: “Space science in China is advancing from the initial stage into a new era of accelerated development.” However, others dispute how fast China can go in its bid to catch up with or even overtake the United States in space.

“China is not yet there as a great [space] power,” according to Dimitrios Stroikos, an expert on China space policies and fellow in international relations at the London School of Economics. He described China’s just-announced space plan as “very ambitious”.

While Russia was declining as a space power, “the US is the undisputed number one,” Stroikos said at China Week, a public event on 17 October at King’s College London.

Stroikos pointed out that highly visible technology such as space technology, has always been a way of projecting power, and is part of China’s great power aspirations under Xi Jinping.

The space plan “is ambitious in that only the United States can do things at the same scale,” Bleddyn Bowen, associate professor in astropolitics and space warfare at the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University in the United Kingdom, told University World News.

“China is second only to the United States. And of course, in some areas of space science it’s doing things the Americans aren’t doing. So, it is ambitious, just by the sheer scale of it,” said Bowen.

But he added that the US had “a lot of entrenched advantages” and described the “milestones” set out under China’s just-released plan as “unremarkable”, cautioning that milestones for space missions are often delayed. “Obviously they’re not going to do everything – the timelines are quite fluid, but that still means they’ll get a lot done,” he said.

China will also carry out space science research and development under five scientific themes: extreme universe, ripples in spacetime, panorama of the Sun-Earth System, habitable planets and exploring the laws of space, Ding said.

“We will need cooperation with universities and institutions to see whether we can also commercialise some of these achievements,” another CAS official said.

Lin Xiqiang, deputy director of the CMSA, highlighted seven already established research centres at Peking University, and in the Yangtze river delta area close to Shanghai, and the Greater Bay Area that includes China’s Southern Guangdong province, Hong Kong and Macau.

He said the centres were aiming to achieve breakthroughs in cosmology, galaxy science, as well as the study of celestial bodies in the Milky Way and the solar system.

Data-sharing

Establishing multinational collaborative scientific teams “with complementary advantages” will be encouraged in space science projects, and the sharing of scientific data will be expanded to promote “significant scientific achievements”, Wang said.

“We will try our best to support other countries, especially developing countries, to go into space,” he said, referring to possibilities to enhance science capacity in developing countries, including using space technologies for tackling climate change and to alleviate disasters.

Seeming to address criticism that China is reluctant to share data with scientific partners or that it takes advantage of scientific work carried out in other countries, CNSA’s Yang stressed “without authorisation, China will not take advantage of international cooperation”.

“When we work with other countries we draft a detailed contract. For example, for all [international] agreements and also under the BRICS and World Meteorological Organisation, we detail how we will share information with each other,” Yang said.

“We will conduct international cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, to make sure all of these achievements can bring benefit to the world,” he added.

Bowen said international collaboration was an important part of China’s ambitions in space to portray itself as a technological powerhouse and an alternative to the US, particularly for collaborations with countries in the developing world.

“That kind of international cooperation is much more important than anything they’re doing on the moon or on an [international] space station,” he noted.

“China’s space activities are very much dovetailing with a larger Belt and Road Initiative,” he said referring to China’s trade and infrastructure projects with countries across Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

Space cooperation “is very much part of the same ecosystem of China projecting its economic power and trying to be an attractive source of cooperation investment for other parts of the world … as well as pushing out the Westerners,” he added.

However, he said countries will have to weigh up the implications of a global space race, particularly in the light of the current technological rivalry between the US and China.

“Any country that wants to cooperate with both [the US and China] has to be extremely careful that they don’t cross-contaminate, then violate, [export control] laws and political sensitivity,” he said.

He explained that the climate of rivalry “is only going to get more difficult in the near to mid-term future, and as China becomes more capable and an ever more attractive alternative to the US”.